China’s clashes with the Philippines raise fears of a wider war

Intensifying confrontations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea have raised fears that their dispute could escalate to conflict and draw in the US.

China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea — including to Second Thomas Shoal, a part of the Spratly Islands within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) — have been widely rejected, but Beijing continues to pressure Manila.

The Philippines took possession of Second Thomas Shoal in 1999, grounding a navy ship there and stationing troops on it, sustaining them with regular resupply missions. Chinese coast guard ships have patrolled around the shoal for more than a decade and have interfered with those resupply missions in the past, but that interference has increased, especially since last summer. 

That interference was described as "a stealthy blockade” in August, but it has only gotten more overt and aggressive. Manila has reported the use of water cannons and ramming against its vessels during resupply missions, and during a series of encounters in December, Chinese vessels used water cannons, long-range acoustic devices, and ramming to harass Filipino ships, damaging several of them.

Those encounters took a dangerous turn this month. On March 5, Chinese water cannons shattered the windshield of a Philippine resupply boat, Unaizah May 4, as it sailed to Second Thomas Shoal. Four Philippine sailors were hurt, the first report of injuries from China’s harassment of the resupply missions.

On March 23, Unaizah May 4 made another run to Second Thomas Shoal, escorted by Philippine coast guard and navy ships. For hours that morning, they were harassed by Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels. Unaizah May 4 was again sprayed by water cannons, causing “heavy damage” and injuring several sailors. Chinese boats also “impeded and encircled” one of the Philippine coast guard escorts.

Chinese vessels deployed a floating barrier at the shoal, preventing Philippine ships from entering, but they completed the mission by using rigid-hull inflatable boats to ferry personnel and supplies to the grounded ship, BRP Sierra Madre.

Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, said the March 23 confrontation was the “most dangerous” of its kind and the first time a Philippine ship was prevented from reaching the Sierra Madre, but it was not an isolated incident. On the same day, a Chinese navy helicopter hovered a few dozen feet above Filipino researchers as they surveyed sandbars near Thitu Island, another Philippine-controlled island in the Spratlys, injuring them in what a Philippine official said was a “dangerous” attempt to drive them away.

While China is not the only claimant in the South China Sea, it has been the most aggressive against other claimants, especially the Philippines. China has built up other features in the Spratlys that it controls into military outposts, and its actions around Second Thomas Shoal are seen as an effort to secure more territory to solidify its claims and bolster its military position near vital sea lanes.

‘All hell breaks loose’

Manila has protested Chinese actions on March 23, summoning China’s charge d’affairs in the Philippines and sending a diplomatic démarche to Beijing.

“China’s continued interference with the Philippines’ routine and lawful activities in its own exclusive economic zone is unacceptable. It infringes upon the Philippines’ sovereign rights and jurisdiction,” the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said on March 25, demanding that Chinese vessels leave the area around the shoal and the Philippine EEZ “immediately.”

Brawner has said resupply missions will continue, possibly with “adjustments” meant to prevent a repeat of March 23. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Thursday that Manila would implement a “countermeasure package” that was “proportionate, deliberate, and reasonable in the face of the open, unabating, and illegal, coercive, aggressive, and dangerous attacks.”

Marcos Jr. also said he had been “in constant communication” with “relevant allies, partners, and friends” who offered to help “protect and secure our Sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction.” (A Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman on Thursday accused Manila of “provocations” and said “soliciting foreign support will lead nowhere.”)

A number of countries have expressed support for the Philippines, including Japan, Australia, and India, but the US, which has a formal alliance with Manila, has been the most vocal. After the March 5 and March 23 incidents, the State Department criticized China’s actions and reaffirmed that the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty extends “to armed attacks” on Philippine forces, including its coast guard, “anywhere in the South China Sea.” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the same during a call with his Philippine counterpart on March 27.

China’s increasing aggression against the Philippines, and the US commitment to defend its ally, have raised concerns about escalation, potentially to a wider war. US and Philippine officials themselves have expressed worry about how events could unfold.

At an event in late February, when asked how the US would respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez instead said the South China Sea was “the real flashpoint.”

“There can be one major accident and either one of our countries, the US or the Philippines, can invoke the [Mutual Defense Treaty], and when we do, a commitment made by the US or a commitment we make will happen, then all hell breaks loose,” Romualdez said.

In early March, Marcos Jr. told Australian media that there was now a “much higher” chance of “outright conflict.”

“We worry in the Philippines because it could come from not a strategic decision by anyone saying, 'OK, we're going to war,' but just by some servicemen making a mistake or some action that's misunderstood,” Marcos said.

At a Congressional hearing on March 20, US Navy Adm. John Aquilino, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command, said the Philippines was “a really critical hotspot right now” and that China’s “continued belligerent and aggressive and dangerous activity” was a concern.

Aquilino said he hoped international condemnation was “enough to get the Chinese to back off, but if it doesn't, it could go in bad places.”

“The Philippines, if a sailor or soldier or one of their members were killed, could invoke Article V of the Mutual Defense Treaty, and that would put our policy decision-makers in a place that would require really tough choices,” Aquilino added.

China has repeatedly accused the Philippines of “abuses and provocations” and of acting at the behest of the US. Beijing also claims Manila reneged on an agreement to remove the BRP Sierra Madre, though Philippine officials say there was no such deal.

Chinese officials appear unfazed by the risk of escalation.

“The US is not a party to the South China Sea issue and is not in the position of interfering in issues between China and the Philippines,” a Foreign Ministry spokesman said Thursday. “The US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty will not move us a bit from our will and resolve.”

Big meetings amid rising tensions

Amid tensions across the Western Pacific, Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and Marcos Jr. on April 11 for what the White House called “the first trilateral US-Japan-Philippines leaders’ summit.” In addition to reaffirming their “ironclad alliances,” the leaders will discuss trilateral cooperation, including to “further peace and security in the Indo-Pacific.” Reports indicate the US and Japan will announce plans to restructure the US military command in Japan and that all three will announce plans for joint naval patrols in the South China Sea. The meeting reflects the Biden administration’s focus on “mini-lateral” security arrangements, like trilateral AUKUS, as opposed to major multilateral security initiatives, like NATO, which have little appeal to most countries in Asia.

India’s statement of support for the Philippines came during a visit by External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to Manila. Jaishankar used a press conference with his Philippine counterpart on March 26 to stress the importance of adherence to the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea and to “firmly reiterate India’s support to the Philippines for upholding its national sovereignty.” Jaishankar also said it was “natural” for India and the Philippines, “whose trust and comfort is growing so rapidly,” to look for new areas of cooperation, “and certainly defense and security is one of them.” India has its own territorial disputes with China, which have turned deadly in recent years, and Beijing was quick to accuse New Delhi of “playing the South China Sea card” to “exert more pressure on China.”

Beijing is not only raising the pressure in the South China Sea. Since a February 14 incident in which Taiwan’s coast guard tried to stop a Chinese fishing boat near Taiwan’s Kinmen Island — the boat then tried to flee, leading it to capsize and killing two of its passengers — China’s coast guard has been more assertive, patrolling more often and boarding Taiwanese vessels near Kinmen, which is only a few miles from the mainland Chinese city of Xiamen. As in the South China Sea, China’s moves around Kinmen are seen as an effort to exploit incidents to create new norms and undermine a rival. Also like in the South China Sea, China’s actions are seen as raising the tension in an already fraught environment, where a misstep or miscalculation could escalate, potentially drawing in the US. “The current situation is very tense and, if it’s not handled properly, I’m concerned that an accident may cause conflict,” Taiwan’s defense minister told lawmakers on March 7.

Here's a map

China’s military outposts around the Spratly Islands, drawn from the US Defense Department’s 2023 China Military Power Report.